Correlation and Causation

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If you have a group of fish in a tank, they will correlate your proximity to the tank with feeding events. Every time you come close to the tank, they get prepared for their meal by getting close to the food inlet because they know that you’re going to feed them. But after a while something interesting happens. The fish start spending longer periods of time around the food inlet in the tank when they get hungry, falsely thinking that this will attract the food. This happens because the fish have mixed between correlation and causation of the owner coming close to them and them hanging around the food inlet. They think that it is when they come close to the food inlet the owner will come close too, because they only understand the correlation of the two events and not the causation of one to the other.

And with some more time you start feeding the fish when you see them around the inlet because it reminds you of feeding time. This correlation and causation confusion on behalf of the fish completely reverses the roles between the powerful owner and the weak fish where the owner starts going nearer the tank whenever the fish get closer to the food inlet not the other way round as in the old days.

If Pavolv’s dog learnt to start drooling before hearing the bell, because it mixed between the correlation and causation it could have compelled Pavlov to feeding it out of pity, similarly reversing the role of the master and the slave which is actually common in the world of dogs and cats with the delusional masters who turn into their pet’s slaves.

The mixing of causation and correlation has also reversed the role of the master and the slave in the social human world. Karl Marx predicted a revolution by the workers against the ruling classes. The revolution happened, and because the proletariat thought that their victory correlated with Marx’s prophecy, they were further empowered and they became self righteous and created a communist dictatorship, hence making the slaves masters again. They didn’t know that it was the prediction that caused the revolution at the first place; and that what happened wasn’t in fact a correlation. But thanks to this confusion, the slave became the master again. 

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